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GDP Growth Rates



EconomyPolitics 3rd Annual 10 year growth rates
The top fastest growing countries over the next 10 years (above 20 MM):

This is the second in a three part series where we identify the most attractive international investment opportunities for the next ten years. We start out by looking at economic efficiency, i.e. the fundamental freedoms and legal framework, which facilitates successful investing. Second we look at growth rates and finally we look at places where economic opportunity will be taking place.
When you look at future growth rates, it is a function of economic freedom, population growth and GDP per capita. All other things equal, high economic freedom, high population growth and low GDP per capita, both lead to high economic growth.
EconomyPolitics Methodology
Estimating next year’s GDP growth is hard to get right. To an investor looking to place capital, it is easy to confuse next year’s economic growth with long term potential. As we are no likelier than the next economist to “get it right” in the short term, we have chosen to focus on longer–term trends, i.e. the ten year growth rates, which in the end dominate.
We forecast how long it would take for a country to reach the prosperity level of the United States as measured by GDP per capita. We estimate that if a country is free and open, they may become on par to the United States in GDP per capita in 40 years. After World War II, Europe was poor and destitute and its infrastructure was destroyed, but it was relatively free and open for business. Many of the more open ones caught up in terms of GDP per capita to the United States in about 40 years.
We use the 40 year as an anchor and assume that any country that is free and open will catch up in 40 years. The lower the GDP per capita, the faster the growth. We also make adjustments for population growth and economic efficiency.
So where are the places that will grow the most over the coming decade? The continent that stands as a bright spot for growth is Africa. This is the third consecutive year that we have highlighted Africa as a continent of hope.
Rank
Country
Population
Average
Per Cap GDP
10 year growth rate
1
Rwanda
10,718,379
0.441
1,100
12.42%
2
Zambia
13,046,508
0.398
1,500
10.44%
3
Uganda
32,939,800
0.349
1,300
9.63%
4
Kenya
38,610,097
0.372
1,600
8.91%
5
Ghana
24,233,431
0.419
2,500
8.41%
6
Ethiopia
84,320,987
0.285
1,000
7.68%
7
Mongolia
2,736,800
0.434
3,600
7.40%
8
Malawi
13,077,160
0.273
800
7.38%
9
Madagascar
20,696,070
0.271
900
7.23%
10
Tanzania
43,188,000
0.303
1,400
6.76%
11
Philippines
94,013,200
0.384
3,500
6.73%
12
Georgia
4,469,200
0.564
4,900
6.68%
13
India
1,210,193,422
0.400
3,500
6.57%
14
Vietnam
87,840,000
0.396
3,100
6.55%
15
Jordan
6,272,600
0.477
5,400
6.51%
16
Malaysia
28,334,135
0.654
14,700
6.49%
17
Kyrgyzstan
5,477,600
0.341
2,200
6.39%
18
Guatemala
14,713,763
0.410
5,200
6.37%
19
Indonesia
237,641,326
0.423
4,200
6.30%
20
Thailand
65,926,261
0.595
8,700
6.25%
21
Peru
29,797,694
0.562
9,200
6.20%
22
Honduras
8,215,313
0.372
4,200
6.00%
23
Burkina Faso
15,730,977
0.247
1,200
5.98%
24
Morocco
32,481,700
0.418
4,800
5.83%
25
Chile
17,248,450
0.712
15,400
5.80%
26
Sri Lanka
20,653,000
0.426
5,000
5.73%
27
Bangladesh
142,319,000
0.290
1,700
5.68%
28
Colombia
46,407,000
0.521
9,800
5.53%
29
Panama
3,405,813
0.553
13,000
5.39%
30
Mali
14,517,176
0.236
1,200
5.34%
31
China
1,347,350,000
0.507
7,600
5.32%
32
Nigeria
162,471,000
0.292
2,500
5.25%
33
Armenia
3,268,500
0.474
5,700
5.23%
34
Mozambique
23,049,621
0.223
1,000
5.12%
35
Namibia
2,324,000
0.447
6,900
5.11%
36
Moldova
3,560,400
0.350
2,500
5.04%
37
Paraguay
6,337,127
0.376
5,200
5.01%
38
Nicaragua
5,815,524
0.323
3,000
5.00%
39
Tunisia
10,673,800
0.490
9,400
4.99%
40
Mauritius
1,280,924
0.622
14,000
4.98%
41
Egypt
81,625,000
0.364
6,200
4.96%
42
Botswana
2,031,000
0.520
14,000
4.95%
43
Benin
9,100,000
0.227
1,500
4.87%
44
Cyprus
838,897
0.628
21,000
4.79%
45
Senegal
12,855,153
0.241
1,900
4.74%
46
Pakistan
178,874,000
0.282
2,500
4.72%
47
Turkey
74,724,269
0.510
12,300
4.71%
48
Oman
2,773,479
0.628
25,600
4.62%
49
Costa Rica
4,301,712
0.478
11,300
4.61%
50
United Arab Emirates
8,264,070
0.664
49,600
4.50%
51
Nepal
26,620,809
0.227
1,200
4.50%
52
Mexico
112,336,538
0.535
13,900
4.47%
53
Belize
312,698
0.367
8,400
4.38%
54
New Zealand
4,439,700
0.845
27,700
4.26%
55
Macedonia
2,057,284
0.509
9,700
4.26%
56
El Salvador
6,227,000
0.426
7,200
4.09%
57
Bahrain
1,234,571
0.626
40,300
4.01%
58
Brazil
192,376,496
0.436
10,800
3.95%
59
Albania
2,831,741
0.440
8,000
3.95%
60
Cameroon
19,406,100
0.230
2,300
3.87%
61
Azerbaijan
9,111,100
0.450
10,900
3.81%
62
Jamaica
2,705,800
0.393
8,300
3.62%
63
South Africa
50,586,757
0.534
10,700
3.44%
64
Dominican Republic
9,378,818
0.357
8,900
3.43%
65
Kazakhstan
16,674,000
0.494
12,700
3.40%
66
Bolivia
10,426,154
0.271
4,800
3.36%
67
Israel
7,836,300
0.627
29,800
3.34%
68
Côte d'Ivoire
21,395,000
0.197
1,800
3.30%
69
Lesotho
2,194,000
0.214
1,700
2.96%
70
Uruguay
3,203,792
0.489
13,700
2.90%
71
Lithuania
3,195,700
0.611
16,000
2.85%
72
Romania
19,042,936
0.477
11,600
2.72%
73
Australia
22,847,458
0.826
41,000
2.63%
74
Montenegro
620,029
0.468
10,100
2.52%
75
Syria
21,465,000
0.253
4,800
2.51%
76
Ecuador
14,483,499
0.275
7,800
2.42%
77
Haiti
10,085,214
0.163
1,200
2.27%
78
Latvia
2,049,500
0.552
14,700
2.22%
79
United Kingdom
62,300,000
0.808
34,800
2.19%
80
Poland
38,092,000
0.565
18,800
2.18%
81
Canada
33,476,688
0.833
39,400
2.15%
82
Slovakia
5,445,324
0.604
22,000
2.15%
83
Ireland
4,581,269
0.695
37,300
2.11%
84
Hungary
9,985,722
0.565
18,800
2.03%
85
Bosnia and Herzegovina
3,839,737
0.292
6,600
2.02%
86
Algeria
37,100,000
0.254
7,300
2.01%
87
Bulgaria
7,364,570
0.516
13,500
1.98%
88
Estonia
1,316,541
0.659
19,100
1.93%
89
Kuwait
2,818,000
0.581
48,900
1.84%
90
Singapore
5,183,700
0.959
62,100
1.82%
91
South Korea
48,580,000
0.723
30,000
1.82%
92
Portugal
10,561,614
0.561
23,000
1.80%
93
Iran
76,146,000
0.272
10,600
1.71%
94
Spain
46,196,278
0.603
29,400
1.70%
95
France
65,350,000
0.696
33,100
1.69%
96
Serbia
7,120,666
0.381
10,900
1.67%
97
Argentina
40,117,096
0.323
14,700
1.60%
98
Mauritania
3,340,627
0.139
2,100
1.59%
99
Croatia
4,290,612
0.460
17,400
1.55%
100
United States
313,115,000
0.828
47,200
1.54%
101
Denmark
5,580,516
0.846
36,600
1.51%
102
Luxembourg
511,840
0.739
82,600
1.47%
103
Finland
5,405,300
0.826
35,400
1.25%
104
Guyana
784,894
0.269
7,200
1.24%
105
Czech Republic
10,548,527
0.600
25,600
1.20%
106
Ukraine
45,644,419
0.262
6,700
1.16%
107
Iceland
319,575
0.644
38,300
1.10%
108
Hong Kong
7,103,700
0.941
45,900
1.07%
109
Taiwan
23,230,506
0.737
35,700
1.03%
110
Netherlands
16,725,902
0.773
40,300
0.94%
111
Russia
143,030,106
0.403
15,900
0.92%
112
Sweden
9,482,855
0.813
39,100
0.85%
113
Italy
60,776,531
0.516
30,500
0.82%
114
Trinidad and Tobago
1,317,714
0.438
21,200
0.81%
115
Slovenia
2,056,680
0.589
28,200
0.73%
116
Switzerland
7,870,100
0.872
42,600
0.72%
117
Germany
81,796,000
0.778
35,700
0.46%
118
Japan
127,770,000
0.746
34,000
0.44%
119
Burundi
8,575,000
0.062
300
0.42%
120
Belgium
10,839,905
0.702
37,800
0.41%
121
Norway
4,997,000
0.802
54,600
0.20%
122
Austria
8,419,776
0.740
40,400
0.18%
123
Angola
20,609,294
0.120
8,200
-0.11%
124
Greece
10,787,690
0.373
29,600
-0.28%
125
Venezuela
27,150,095
0.108
12,700
-0.77%
126
Chad
11,274,106
0.047
1,600
-0.94%
127
Zimbabwe
12,754,000
-
500
-2.30%

Regional Differences
The region that should grow fastest is Africa. We have projected the 10 year growth rate for Africa at 5.09%. Africa’s young population is growing fast, they are very poor and they are finally starting to end the cycle of war and replace it with a system of good governance. All those things increase economic growth and bode well for economic growth.
Asia follows close behind. They come in at 4.71%. Their population growth comes in lower than Africa, and their standard of living is greater, but they also have a greater degree of economic efficiency.
The Middle East follows at came in a 4.20%. Will the region’s recent turmoil blossom into good governance or continue more of the same. Early indications do not support a blossoming of representative government, but, the truth is no one knows the outcome of Egypt and the rest of the Arab world will look like in ten years.
Latin America follows at 3.88. They have dropped off recently due to undemocratic moves in Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Argentina. Peru remains a bright spot, with their recent election of Ollanta Humala who has governed much better than expected. So the region remains mired in their unwarranted dreams of benevolent caudillos.
Oceania follows mostly because growth in Indonesia is pulling the rest of the countries up and finishes at 3.75%. Singapore is pulling their index down. It’s not that Singapore won’t have economic growth, its that since they are at the top, there is not room to play catch up.
The developed world sees less room for economic growth than does other parts. They also fare much worse in terms of debt and unfunded liabilities, both of which are weighing on the markets. The Eurozone index factos this into the equation which is why there is low growth expect both in Europe and North America. Europe’s expected growth is 1,76%, but it is a mishmash of the heavily indebted PIIGS which lower growth and Eastern Europe which raise growth. North America’s expected growth comes in slightly higher at 1.99, but the region is the least diverse and only of the US, Canada and Haiti.
Regional Data
Africa average 5.09%
Rank
Country
10 year growth rate
1
Rwanda
12.42%
2
Zambia
10.44%
3
Uganda
9.63%
4
Kenya
8.91%
5
Ghana
8.41%
6
Ethiopia
7.68%
8
Malawi
7.38%
9
Madagascar
7.23%
10
Tanzania
6.76%
23
Burkina Faso
5.98%
30
Mali
5.34%
32
Nigeria
5.25%
34
Mozambique
5.12%
35
Namibia
5.11%
40
Mauritius
4.98%
42
Botswana
4.95%
43
Benin
4.87%
45
Senegal
4.74%
60
Cameroon
3.87%
63
South Africa
3.44%
68
Côte d'Ivoire
3.30%
69
Lesotho
2.96%
98
Mauritania
1.59%
119
Burundi
0.42%
123
Angola
-0.11%
126
Chad
-0.94%
127
Zimbabwe
-2.30%

Asia average 4.71%
Rank
Country
10 year growth rate
7
Mongolia
7.40%
11
Philippines
6.73%
13
India
6.57%
14
Vietnam
6.55%
16
Malaysia
6.49%
17
Kyrgyzstan
6.39%
20
Thailand
6.25%
26
Sri Lanka
5.73%
27
Bangladesh
5.68%
31
China
5.32%
46
Pakistan
4.72%
51
Nepal
4.50%
65
Kazakhstan
3.40%
91
South Korea
1.82%
108
Hong Kong
1.07%
109
Taiwan
1.03%
118
Japan
0.44%

Middle East average 4.20%
Rank
Country
10 year growth rate
12
Georgia
6.68%
15
Jordan
6.51%
24
Morocco
5.83%
33
Armenia
5.23%
39
Tunisia
4.99%
41
Egypt
4.96%
47
Turkey
4.71%
48
Oman
4.62%
50
United Arab Emirates
4.50%
57
Bahrain
4.01%
61
Azerbaijan
3.81%
67
Israel
3.34%
75
Syria
2.51%
86
Algeria
2.01%
89
Kuwait
1.84%
93
Iran
1.71%

Latin America average 3.88%
Rank
Country
10 year growth rate
18
Guatemala
6.37%
21
Peru
6.20%
22
Honduras
6.00%
25
Chile
5.80%
28
Colombia
5.53%
29
Panama
5.39%
37
Paraguay
5.01%
38
Nicaragua
5.00%
49
Costa Rica
4.61%
52
Mexico
4.47%
53
Belize
4.38%
56
El Salvador
4.09%
58
Brazil
3.95%
62
Jamaica
3.62%
64
Dominican Republic
3.43%
66
Bolivia
3.36%
70
Uruguay
2.90%
76
Ecuador
2.42%
97
Argentina
1.60%
104
Guyana
1.24%
114
Trinidad and Tobago
0.81%
125
Venezuela
-0.77%

Oceania average 3.75%
Rank
Country
10 year growth rate
19
Indonesia
6.30%
54
New Zealand
4.26%
73
Australia
2.63%
90
Singapore
1.82%

North America average 1.99%
Rank
Country
10 year growth rate
77
Haiti
2.27%
81
Canada
2.15%
100
United States
1.54%

Europe average 1.76%
Rank
Country
10 year growth rate
36
Moldova
5.04%
44
Cyprus
4.79%
55
Macedonia
4.26%
59
Albania
3.95%
71
Lithuania
2.85%
72
Romania
2.72%
74
Montenegro
2.52%
78
Latvia
2.22%
79
United Kingdom
2.19%
80
Poland
2.18%
82
Slovakia
2.15%
83
Ireland
2.11%
84
Hungary
2.03%
85
Bosnia and Herzegovina
2.02%
87
Bulgaria
1.98%
88
Estonia
1.93%
92
Portugal
1.80%
94
Spain
1.70%
95
France
1.69%
96
Serbia
1.67%
99
Croatia
1.55%
101
Denmark
1.51%
102
Luxembourg
1.47%
103
Finland
1.25%
105
Czech Republic
1.20%
106
Ukraine
1.16%
107
Iceland
1.10%
110
Netherlands
0.94%
111
Russia
0.92%
112
Sweden
0.85%
113
Italy
0.82%
115
Slovenia
0.73%
116
Switzerland
0.72%
117
Germany
0.46%
120
Belgium
0.41%
121
Norway
0.20%
122
Austria
0.18%
124
Greece
-0.28%

For media inquiries into the EconomyPolitics Index of Economic Efficiency, please contact economipolitics [at] gmail [dot] com. Please feel free to use the full index, but must source back to EconomyPolitics.
10 Yr Growth Rates Final 2112