GDP Growth Rates

EconomyPolitics 3rd Annual 10 year growth rates

The top fastest growing countries over the next 10 years (above 20 MM):

This is the second in a three part series where we identify the most attractive international investment opportunities for the next ten years. We start out by looking at economic efficiency, i.e. the fundamental freedoms and legal framework, which facilitates successful investing. Second we look at growth rates and finally we look at places where economic opportunity will be taking place.

When you look at future growth rates, it is a function of economic freedom, population growth and GDP per capita. All other things equal, high economic freedom, high population growth and low GDP per capita, both lead to high economic growth.

EconomyPolitics Methodology

Estimating next year’s GDP growth is hard to get right. To an investor looking to place capital, it is easy to confuse next year’s economic growth with long term potential. As we are no likelier than the next economist to “get it right” in the short term, we have chosen to focus on longer–term trends, i.e. the ten year growth rates, which in the end dominate.

We forecast how long it would take for a country to reach the prosperity level of the United States as measured by GDP per capita. We estimate that if a country is free and open, they may become on par to the United States in GDP per capita in 40 years. After World War II, Europe was poor and destitute and its infrastructure was destroyed, but it was relatively free and open for business. Many of the more open ones caught up in terms of GDP per capita to the United States in about 40 years.

We use the 40 year as an anchor and assume that any country that is free and open will catch up in 40 years. The lower the GDP per capita, the faster the growth. We also make adjustments for population growth and economic efficiency.

So where are the places that will grow the most over the coming decade? The continent that stands as a bright spot for growth is Africa. This is the third consecutive year that we have highlighted Africa as a continent of hope.

Rank	Country	Population	Average	Per Cap GDP	10 year growth rate
1	Rwanda	10,718,379	0.441	1,100	12.42%
2	Zambia	13,046,508	0.398	1,500	10.44%
3	Uganda	32,939,800	0.349	1,300	9.63%
4	Kenya	38,610,097	0.372	1,600	8.91%
5	Ghana	24,233,431	0.419	2,500	8.41%
6	Ethiopia	84,320,987	0.285	1,000	7.68%
7	Mongolia	2,736,800	0.434	3,600	7.40%
8	Malawi	13,077,160	0.273	800	7.38%
9	Madagascar	20,696,070	0.271	900	7.23%
10	Tanzania	43,188,000	0.303	1,400	6.76%
11	Philippines	94,013,200	0.384	3,500	6.73%
12	Georgia	4,469,200	0.564	4,900	6.68%
13	India	1,210,193,422	0.400	3,500	6.57%
14	Vietnam	87,840,000	0.396	3,100	6.55%
15	Jordan	6,272,600	0.477	5,400	6.51%
16	Malaysia	28,334,135	0.654	14,700	6.49%
17	Kyrgyzstan	5,477,600	0.341	2,200	6.39%
18	Guatemala	14,713,763	0.410	5,200	6.37%
19	Indonesia	237,641,326	0.423	4,200	6.30%
20	Thailand	65,926,261	0.595	8,700	6.25%
21	Peru	29,797,694	0.562	9,200	6.20%
22	Honduras	8,215,313	0.372	4,200	6.00%
23	Burkina Faso	15,730,977	0.247	1,200	5.98%
24	Morocco	32,481,700	0.418	4,800	5.83%
25	Chile	17,248,450	0.712	15,400	5.80%
26	Sri Lanka	20,653,000	0.426	5,000	5.73%
27	Bangladesh	142,319,000	0.290	1,700	5.68%
28	Colombia	46,407,000	0.521	9,800	5.53%
29	Panama	3,405,813	0.553	13,000	5.39%
30	Mali	14,517,176	0.236	1,200	5.34%
31	China	1,347,350,000	0.507	7,600	5.32%
32	Nigeria	162,471,000	0.292	2,500	5.25%
33	Armenia	3,268,500	0.474	5,700	5.23%
34	Mozambique	23,049,621	0.223	1,000	5.12%
35	Namibia	2,324,000	0.447	6,900	5.11%
36	Moldova	3,560,400	0.350	2,500	5.04%
37	Paraguay	6,337,127	0.376	5,200	5.01%
38	Nicaragua	5,815,524	0.323	3,000	5.00%
39	Tunisia	10,673,800	0.490	9,400	4.99%
40	Mauritius	1,280,924	0.622	14,000	4.98%
41	Egypt	81,625,000	0.364	6,200	4.96%
42	Botswana	2,031,000	0.520	14,000	4.95%
43	Benin	9,100,000	0.227	1,500	4.87%
44	Cyprus	838,897	0.628	21,000	4.79%
45	Senegal	12,855,153	0.241	1,900	4.74%
46	Pakistan	178,874,000	0.282	2,500	4.72%
47	Turkey	74,724,269	0.510	12,300	4.71%
48	Oman	2,773,479	0.628	25,600	4.62%
49	Costa Rica	4,301,712	0.478	11,300	4.61%
50	United Arab Emirates	8,264,070	0.664	49,600	4.50%
51	Nepal	26,620,809	0.227	1,200	4.50%
52	Mexico	112,336,538	0.535	13,900	4.47%
53	Belize	312,698	0.367	8,400	4.38%
54	New Zealand	4,439,700	0.845	27,700	4.26%
55	Macedonia	2,057,284	0.509	9,700	4.26%
56	El Salvador	6,227,000	0.426	7,200	4.09%
57	Bahrain	1,234,571	0.626	40,300	4.01%
58	Brazil	192,376,496	0.436	10,800	3.95%
59	Albania	2,831,741	0.440	8,000	3.95%
60	Cameroon	19,406,100	0.230	2,300	3.87%
61	Azerbaijan	9,111,100	0.450	10,900	3.81%
62	Jamaica	2,705,800	0.393	8,300	3.62%
63	South Africa	50,586,757	0.534	10,700	3.44%
64	Dominican Republic	9,378,818	0.357	8,900	3.43%
65	Kazakhstan	16,674,000	0.494	12,700	3.40%
66	Bolivia	10,426,154	0.271	4,800	3.36%
67	Israel	7,836,300	0.627	29,800	3.34%
68	Côte d'Ivoire	21,395,000	0.197	1,800	3.30%
69	Lesotho	2,194,000	0.214	1,700	2.96%
70	Uruguay	3,203,792	0.489	13,700	2.90%
71	Lithuania	3,195,700	0.611	16,000	2.85%
72	Romania	19,042,936	0.477	11,600	2.72%
73	Australia	22,847,458	0.826	41,000	2.63%
74	Montenegro	620,029	0.468	10,100	2.52%
75	Syria	21,465,000	0.253	4,800	2.51%
76	Ecuador	14,483,499	0.275	7,800	2.42%
77	Haiti	10,085,214	0.163	1,200	2.27%
78	Latvia	2,049,500	0.552	14,700	2.22%
79	United Kingdom	62,300,000	0.808	34,800	2.19%
80	Poland	38,092,000	0.565	18,800	2.18%
81	Canada	33,476,688	0.833	39,400	2.15%
82	Slovakia	5,445,324	0.604	22,000	2.15%
83	Ireland	4,581,269	0.695	37,300	2.11%
84	Hungary	9,985,722	0.565	18,800	2.03%
85	Bosnia and Herzegovina	3,839,737	0.292	6,600	2.02%
86	Algeria	37,100,000	0.254	7,300	2.01%
87	Bulgaria	7,364,570	0.516	13,500	1.98%
88	Estonia	1,316,541	0.659	19,100	1.93%
89	Kuwait	2,818,000	0.581	48,900	1.84%
90	Singapore	5,183,700	0.959	62,100	1.82%
91	South Korea	48,580,000	0.723	30,000	1.82%
92	Portugal	10,561,614	0.561	23,000	1.80%
93	Iran	76,146,000	0.272	10,600	1.71%
94	Spain	46,196,278	0.603	29,400	1.70%
95	France	65,350,000	0.696	33,100	1.69%
96	Serbia	7,120,666	0.381	10,900	1.67%
97	Argentina	40,117,096	0.323	14,700	1.60%
98	Mauritania	3,340,627	0.139	2,100	1.59%
99	Croatia	4,290,612	0.460	17,400	1.55%
100	United States	313,115,000	0.828	47,200	1.54%
101	Denmark	5,580,516	0.846	36,600	1.51%
102	Luxembourg	511,840	0.739	82,600	1.47%
103	Finland	5,405,300	0.826	35,400	1.25%
104	Guyana	784,894	0.269	7,200	1.24%
105	Czech Republic	10,548,527	0.600	25,600	1.20%
106	Ukraine	45,644,419	0.262	6,700	1.16%
107	Iceland	319,575	0.644	38,300	1.10%
108	Hong Kong	7,103,700	0.941	45,900	1.07%
109	Taiwan	23,230,506	0.737	35,700	1.03%
110	Netherlands	16,725,902	0.773	40,300	0.94%
111	Russia	143,030,106	0.403	15,900	0.92%
112	Sweden	9,482,855	0.813	39,100	0.85%
113	Italy	60,776,531	0.516	30,500	0.82%
114	Trinidad and Tobago	1,317,714	0.438	21,200	0.81%
115	Slovenia	2,056,680	0.589	28,200	0.73%
116	Switzerland	7,870,100	0.872	42,600	0.72%
117	Germany	81,796,000	0.778	35,700	0.46%
118	Japan	127,770,000	0.746	34,000	0.44%
119	Burundi	8,575,000	0.062	300	0.42%
120	Belgium	10,839,905	0.702	37,800	0.41%
121	Norway	4,997,000	0.802	54,600	0.20%
122	Austria	8,419,776	0.740	40,400	0.18%
123	Angola	20,609,294	0.120	8,200	-0.11%
124	Greece	10,787,690	0.373	29,600	-0.28%
125	Venezuela	27,150,095	0.108	12,700	-0.77%
126	Chad	11,274,106	0.047	1,600	-0.94%
127	Zimbabwe	12,754,000	-	500	-2.30%

Regional Differences

The region that should grow fastest is Africa. We have projected the 10 year growth rate for Africa at 5.09%. Africa’s young population is growing fast, they are very poor and they are finally starting to end the cycle of war and replace it with a system of good governance. All those things increase economic growth and bode well for economic growth.

Asia follows close behind. They come in at 4.71%. Their population growth comes in lower than Africa, and their standard of living is greater, but they also have a greater degree of economic efficiency.

The Middle East follows at came in a 4.20%. Will the region’s recent turmoil blossom into good governance or continue more of the same. Early indications do not support a blossoming of representative government, but, the truth is no one knows the outcome of Egypt and the rest of the Arab world will look like in ten years.

Latin America follows at 3.88. They have dropped off recently due to undemocratic moves in Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Argentina. Peru remains a bright spot, with their recent election of Ollanta Humala who has governed much better than expected. So the region remains mired in their unwarranted dreams of benevolent caudillos.

Oceania follows mostly because growth in Indonesia is pulling the rest of the countries up and finishes at 3.75%. Singapore is pulling their index down. It’s not that Singapore won’t have economic growth, its that since they are at the top, there is not room to play catch up.

The developed world sees less room for economic growth than does other parts. They also fare much worse in terms of debt and unfunded liabilities, both of which are weighing on the markets. The Eurozone index factos this into the equation which is why there is low growth expect both in Europe and North America. Europe’s expected growth is 1,76%, but it is a mishmash of the heavily indebted PIIGS which lower growth and Eastern Europe which raise growth. North America’s expected growth comes in slightly higher at 1.99, but the region is the least diverse and only of the US, Canada and Haiti.

Regional Data

Africa average 5.09%

Rank	Country	10 year growth rate
1	Rwanda	12.42%
2	Zambia	10.44%
3	Uganda	9.63%
4	Kenya	8.91%
5	Ghana	8.41%
6	Ethiopia	7.68%
8	Malawi	7.38%
9	Madagascar	7.23%
10	Tanzania	6.76%
23	Burkina Faso	5.98%
30	Mali	5.34%
32	Nigeria	5.25%
34	Mozambique	5.12%
35	Namibia	5.11%
40	Mauritius	4.98%
42	Botswana	4.95%
43	Benin	4.87%
45	Senegal	4.74%
60	Cameroon	3.87%
63	South Africa	3.44%
68	Côte d'Ivoire	3.30%
69	Lesotho	2.96%
98	Mauritania	1.59%
119	Burundi	0.42%
123	Angola	-0.11%
126	Chad	-0.94%
127	Zimbabwe	-2.30%

Asia average 4.71%

Rank	Country	10 year growth rate
7	Mongolia	7.40%
11	Philippines	6.73%
13	India	6.57%
14	Vietnam	6.55%
16	Malaysia	6.49%
17	Kyrgyzstan	6.39%
20	Thailand	6.25%
26	Sri Lanka	5.73%
27	Bangladesh	5.68%
31	China	5.32%
46	Pakistan	4.72%
51	Nepal	4.50%
65	Kazakhstan	3.40%
91	South Korea	1.82%
108	Hong Kong	1.07%
109	Taiwan	1.03%
118	Japan	0.44%

Middle East average 4.20%

Rank	Country	10 year growth rate
12	Georgia	6.68%
15	Jordan	6.51%
24	Morocco	5.83%
33	Armenia	5.23%
39	Tunisia	4.99%
41	Egypt	4.96%
47	Turkey	4.71%
48	Oman	4.62%
50	United Arab Emirates	4.50%
57	Bahrain	4.01%
61	Azerbaijan	3.81%
67	Israel	3.34%
75	Syria	2.51%
86	Algeria	2.01%
89	Kuwait	1.84%
93	Iran	1.71%

Latin America average 3.88%

Rank	Country	10 year growth rate
18	Guatemala	6.37%
21	Peru	6.20%
22	Honduras	6.00%
25	Chile	5.80%
28	Colombia	5.53%
29	Panama	5.39%
37	Paraguay	5.01%
38	Nicaragua	5.00%
49	Costa Rica	4.61%
52	Mexico	4.47%
53	Belize	4.38%
56	El Salvador	4.09%
58	Brazil	3.95%
62	Jamaica	3.62%
64	Dominican Republic	3.43%
66	Bolivia	3.36%
70	Uruguay	2.90%
76	Ecuador	2.42%
97	Argentina	1.60%
104	Guyana	1.24%
114	Trinidad and Tobago	0.81%
125	Venezuela	-0.77%

Oceania average 3.75%

Rank	Country	10 year growth rate
19	Indonesia	6.30%
54	New Zealand	4.26%
73	Australia	2.63%
90	Singapore	1.82%

North America average 1.99%

Rank	Country	10 year growth rate
77	Haiti	2.27%
81	Canada	2.15%
100	United States	1.54%

Europe average 1.76%

Rank	Country	10 year growth rate
36	Moldova	5.04%
44	Cyprus	4.79%
55	Macedonia	4.26%
59	Albania	3.95%
71	Lithuania	2.85%
72	Romania	2.72%
74	Montenegro	2.52%
78	Latvia	2.22%
79	United Kingdom	2.19%
80	Poland	2.18%
82	Slovakia	2.15%
83	Ireland	2.11%
84	Hungary	2.03%
85	Bosnia and Herzegovina	2.02%
87	Bulgaria	1.98%
88	Estonia	1.93%
92	Portugal	1.80%
94	Spain	1.70%
95	France	1.69%
96	Serbia	1.67%
99	Croatia	1.55%
101	Denmark	1.51%
102	Luxembourg	1.47%
103	Finland	1.25%
105	Czech Republic	1.20%
106	Ukraine	1.16%
107	Iceland	1.10%
110	Netherlands	0.94%
111	Russia	0.92%
112	Sweden	0.85%
113	Italy	0.82%
115	Slovenia	0.73%
116	Switzerland	0.72%
117	Germany	0.46%
120	Belgium	0.41%
121	Norway	0.20%
122	Austria	0.18%
124	Greece	-0.28%

For media inquiries into the EconomyPolitics Index of Economic Efficiency, please contact economipolitics [at] gmail [dot] com. Please feel free to use the full index, but must source back to EconomyPolitics.

10 Yr Growth Rates Final 2112